I have always been intrigued by the history of empires as well as the history of ancient civilizations that have been forgotten or barely studied. If we read these histories, we begin to see a pattern of civilizations that were very advanced even to the point of using ancient high tech. Of course, it is easier to trace empires that have been in existence over the last 4000 years. When we do, we see the pattern of each lasting no more than 250 year. Even as the Assyrians could only advance with spears and walking as their main tools of warfare, they lasted about the same amount of time as more advanced empires. The British empire lasted 250 years with large ships, cannons, guns and more modern warfare. They conquered more land and countries but still lasted the same amount of time.
One of my favorites authors is Sir John Glubb who wrote the book “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival”, points out the characteristics of the empires over the last 4000 years. Included in this follow up is the American Empire created in 1776 and launched in 1780. This would put the completion of the American Empire in current time ending in 2030. As we watch America recede from being the world’s caretaker and dismembering internal institutions, we see it taking on a more arbitrary and solitary role in the world. We are bullying allies and acting alone in world governance. Since other nation are rising in power and joining together as strange bedfellows in vying for world power, we see America going it alone in its decisions. Of course, we could be following Rome’s behavior by becoming a Roman Republic first when it was Rome’s mistress and ended with the accession of Augustus. The imperial part (The Roman Empire) began with Augustus’s accession to the death of Marcus Aurelius. (Roman Republic 260-27 B.C a total of 233 years) (Roman Empire 27 B.C to A.D 180 a total of 207 years). “It is true the the empire survived nominally for more than a century after this date, but it did so in constant confusion, rebellions, civil wars and barbarian invasions.” John Glubb
The British Empire began in 1700 and ended in 1950 with the loss of India. The Assyrian Empire began in 859 B.C. to 612 B.C. for a total of 247 years. The pattern goes on and on with the maximum time of an empire over the last 4000 years of 250 years. Some were less but all were in the same time of 235 to 250 years.
“The people of the great nations of the past seem normally to have imagined that their pre-eminence would last for ever. Rome appeared to its citizens to be destined to be for all time the mistress of the world. The Abbasid Khalifs of Baghdad declared that God had appointed them to rule mankind until the day of judgement. Seventy years
ago, many people in Britain believed that an empire would endure for ever. Although Hitler failed to achieve his objective, he declared that Germany would rule the world for a thousand years. That sentiments like these could be publicly expressed without evoking derision shows that, in all ages, the regular rise and fall of great nations has
passed unperceived. The simplest statistics prove the steady rotation of one nation after another at regular intervals.” John Glubb.
I think, all leaders are narcissists. They almost have to be to lead and believe they alone can lead a nation etc. To say that someone is a narcissist is common and ordinary but pretty much business as usual. In order to even run for office and think you can lead or save a nation, city etc. you are pretty much a narcissist. Some of the characteristics of an ending empire are the following: (again I quote Sir Glubb)
“(a) We do not learn from history because
our studies are brief and prejudiced.
(b) In a surprising manner, 250 years
emerges as the average length of national
greatness.
(c) This average has not varied for 3,000
years. Does it represent ten generations?
(d) The stages of the rise and fall of great
nations seem to be:
The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence.
(e) Decadence is marked by:
Defensiveness
Pessimism
Materialism
Frivolity
An influx of foreigners
The Welfare State
A weakening of religion.
(f) Decadence is due to:
Too long a period of wealth and power
Selfishness
Love of money
The loss of a sense of duty.
(g) The life histories of great states are
amazingly similar, and are due to internal
factors.
(h) Their falls are diverse, because they are
largely the result of external causes.
(i) History should be taught as the history
of the human race, though of course with
emphasis on the history of the student’s own
country.”
Perhaps we will copy Rome and begin the period of the United States Empire after being a Republic. We will have to wait and see. We are, remember, in a large pattern that solidified our world power from WWII. Going forward, will we continue our isolation, go-it-alone, my way or the highway, weaponizing the world’s monetary system and punishing nations who are offended. It is important to remember the history of the world and the larger picture of cycles. All of these empires gone before ours believed they would last forever. The Assyrian Empire, The Roman Empire, the British Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Romanov Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Greek, Persian and Arab Empires all have past. None lasted more than 250 years. Question is what country, perhaps asleep, will replace the American Empire?
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